ABPA (the Brazilian Association for Animal Protein) presented its forecasts for the pig and poultry sectors in the country during 2022 and the next year.
Brazilian poultry and pork production will increase, but export will be higher by 5% just for broilers, while pork shipments may fall with 3% in 2022. In 2023, both sectors will evolve positively on production and exportations, according the association.
For pork, ABPA indicates 5% more production in 2022, reaching 4.95 million tonnes. In 2023, production is expected to reach 5.1 million tonnes, an increase of 3%.
The domestic market in 2022 can receive 9% more pork which is about 3.9 million tonnes. For 2023, the expectation is 3.95 million tonnes, 2% more.
“Pork is now more competitive than other proteins, which has generated a considerable boost in domestic consumption, which is expected to reach 18 kilos per capita for the first time”, analyses Luís Rua, market director at ABPA.
There is an expectation of an increase in Chinese imports of pork over the second half of the year, which should favour exports in the sector
Luís Rua, market director at ABPA
In this sense, exports projected by the sector for this year should reach up to 1.1 million tonnes, 3% lower than that recorded in 2021, but still the second best result in the history of Brazilian pig farming.
In 2023, however, a new increase of up to 9% is expected, with volumes that could reach 1.2 million tonnes.
“There is an expectation of an increase in Chinese imports of pork over the second half of the year, which should favour exports in the sector, as we have already noted”, adds Rua.
According to him, other factors can lead Brazilian pig exports to 100,000 per month as of this year, such the Canadian market, tariff reductions in South Korea and Vietnam, and expansion of sales to new markets, such as Thailand.
Brazilian production of chicken meat may grow up by 1% in 2022, compared to 2021, and reach 14.5 million tonnes. According to ABPA, the availability of chicken meat in the domestic market is also expected reach higher levels, 0.5% higher in 2022, reaching 9.78 million tonnes.
ABPA expects poultry export to reach up to 4.9 million tonnes this year, 6% higher than the previous year. Chicken meat production for next year is projected to jump with 5%, with domestic availability expected for 2023 of 9.8 million tonnes. In 2023, the expectation is for exports to grow again 6%, reaching up to 5.2 million tonnes.
ABPA also detailed factors of competitiveness of Brazilian poultry and pig farming. One of these points addressed was products and services costs.
For instance, Polyethylene used in the production of packaging increased by 61% between 2018 and 2021, according to the study.
Electricity increased by 32% in the same period – keeping Brazil among the countries with less competitive energy costs, compared to other major world exporters of proteins.
Costs have also become higher in export logistics. The average international freight per container jumped from US$ 3,890 in 2018 to more than US$ 7,000 in 2021.