News last update:Feb 25, 2016

USDA: Only US pork exports will grow strongly

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects that of all key global pork suppliers only the US shall be able to undergo significant export expansion.

The USDA makes its estimates in its update Livestock and Poultry. World Markets and Trade, published this month.

As for exports, the department also writes, "Exports by major traders are forecast 2% higher to nearly 7.3 million tonnes as robust supplies drive prices lower, stimulating consumption. Marginal increases in purchases by most major importers will more than offset a further decline in imports by Russia."

Global pork production forecast virtually unchanged

The USDA expects that global production is forecast virtually unchanged at 112.0 million tons on marginal expansion by most countries. "After three consecutive years of contraction, Chinese swine inventories are forecast stable in 2016 as lower feed costs and higher pork prices spur a slight increase in sows and improved efficiency (pigs per sow and industry consolidation)."

The report continues, "However, Chinese pork production will remain flat as a decline in slaughter offsets heavier weights. Russian production is higher on significant capacity investments, industry consolidation, stable feed prices and robust domestic demand."

US pork production forecast up after PEDv

The USDA expects US production to be up 1% to a record 11.3 million tonnes on continued strong recovery from PEDv. Exports are forecast over 4% higher to 2.4 million tons as competitive prices will bolster shipments to most markets, particularly Mexico.

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